Simulator

The simulator consists of (a) submodels of the decision making of several groups, and (b) the impacted ecosystem as follows.

1. the group of rhino poachers;
2. the group of middlemen involved in buying, transporting, and selling rhino horns;
3. South African Police Services; and
4. an individual-based submodel of rhino abundance in South Africa.

The files contained in files.zip are as follows.

1. id command file containing all submodel file names: rhinopoleco.id (for rhino political-ecological system);
2. lists of the system's associated social groups, and region names: rhinogroups.dat, rhinoregions.dat;
3. rhino poachers submodel files: poachers.id (submodel definition file), poachers-hyp.par (hypothesis parameter values), poachers-ini.par (initial parameter values);
4. middlemen group submodel files: middle.id, middle-hyp.par, middle-ini.par;
5. South African Police Services submodel files: antipoach.id, antipoach-hyp.par, antipoach-ini.par;
6. ecosystem submodel files: rhinoeco.id, rhinoeco-hyp.par, rhinoeco-ini.par (captures the population dynamics of South African rhinos);
7. files of political-ecological observations: rhino21-24.ahs (observed actions history), obsrhinos.dat (observed rhino abundance).

Data sets used to statistically fit the simulator's parameters

Political-Ecological actions history data set

The file rhino21-24.ahs is an actions history data set of observations on political-ecological actions executed by the above groups.

Data on ecological nodes

The file obsrhinos.dat contains observations on ecological nodes in the ecosystem submodel, namely white rhino abundance in Kruger National Park located in the Mpumalanga region of South Africa.
Sources: South African National Parks (SANParks), International Rhino Foundation, Africa Geographic.

This data is typically collected via aerial surveys (light airplanes or helicopters). Other methods such as spoor sightings and/or camera traps are not currently used to observe rhinos in the wild.

The values of the simulator's parameters are statistically estimated using the combination of these two data sets. To run the statistical estimation computation, place the
report estimate relation block just below the context files relation block in the file rhinopoleco.id. Then, run the computation with the command

      idalone rhinopoleco.id

at a Windows of Linux command prompt depending on where the id software package has been installed. After this run finishes (check the file shell.out for the note Normal termination as its last line) copy the file poachers-cons.par to poachers-hyp.par.

Intelligence Data, WTS Rising Stars, WTS Network Resiliency Index

This Wildlife Crime Investigation Tool assumes that the confederation gathers evidence on the WTS at three different times. The first time is to find out the size, connectivity, and assets of the current, undisturbed WTS. The confederation quietly watches the network for several weeks and at the end of that period, observes its size and connectivity again. Based on output from the simulator, and a social network analysis of the criminal intelligence gathered by the confederation on the rhino-trafficking WTS, the confederation recommends to law enforcement those WTS players to detain, surveil, and interdict. These lists are contained in the confederation's actionable intelligence report.

Finally, some weeks after these arrests, the confederation gathers intelligence on the size and connectivity of the recovering WTS and forwards to law enforcement, its estimate of how long the WTS will take to recover from the above arrests.

Hypothetical criminal intelligence on the rhino-trafficking WTS that could be gathered by a confederation is in the file rhinowts.dat.

Generating the Actionable Intelligence Report

Before the actionable intelligence report can be generated, extinction risk predictions need to computed from the estimated political-ecological model. These computations are executed by first, placing the report evaluate / id_interactions relation block just below the context files relation block in the file rhinopoleco.id -- and then running that file with the following command.

    idalone rhinopoleco.id

Next, to generate the actionable intelligence report, place the
report evaluate / evaluate_social_network( start_time end_time Monte_Carlo_loops)
relation block just below the context files relation block in the file rhinopoleco.id. Then, create the report with the following command.

    idalone rhinopoleco.id

This report contains social network analysis measures that support the report's Detain, Surveil, and Interdict lists. The Detain list identifies those traffickers who are associated with regions that carry the highest risks of the rhino becoming locally extinct by the year 2030.

Output

The actionable intelligence produced by this run produces the following output file, rhinointel.txt:

As can be seen, this file contains predictions of those players in the WTS who will move into leadership roles (called Rising Stars); and the resiliency of the WTS (a measure of how fast the syndicate's functionality can recover from a series of player removals). All of these terms are discussed in Haas and Ferreira (2015). The mathematical forms of the Rising Stars and resiliency algorithms are detailed in Environmental Management submission.

The criminal network just before arrests given in the Detain List are made:

The criminal network some weeks after these arrests: