ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE REPORT Social network node 7 (h22) is influence diagram tigerpoacher2. Social network node 10 (h12) is influence diagram tigerpoacher1. ---------- Social Network Analysis Metrics ------------- Time point 1 Player Eigenvector Degree Predicted Centrality Centrality Level t2 00.552 5.000 3 m4 00.361 2.000 2 m3 00.361 2.000 2 t1 00.352 2.000 3 m1 00.300 3.000 2 m2 00.244 3.000 2 r2 00.228 1.000 4 r1 00.228 1.000 4 h22 00.216 2.000 1 h12 00.092 1.000 1 Betweenness Between/Degree t2 68.000 13.600 3 t1 58.000 29.000 3 m1 54.000 18.000 2 m2 34.000 11.333 2 m4 18.000 9.000 2 h22 18.000 9.000 1 m3 18.000 9.000 2 r2 18.000 18.000 4 h12 18.000 18.000 1 r1 18.000 18.000 4 Gould-Fernandez total brokerage score t2 9.0 3 m1 2.0 2 m2 2.0 2 t1 1.0 3 m4 0.0 2 h22 0.0 1 m3 0.0 2 r2 0.0 4 h12 0.0 1 r1 0.0 4 Network Community Structure Number of algorithm iterations = 2 Number of communities: 2 Player Community r1 5 m3 5 m4 5 r2 5 t2 5 t1 5 h22 8 m1 8 m2 8 h12 8 Time point 2 Player Eigenvector Degree Predicted Centrality Centrality Level m2 00.471 5.000 2 m4 00.418 3.000 2 m3 00.418 3.000 2 t2 00.401 5.000 3 m1 00.300 3.000 2 h22 00.250 2.000 1 t1 00.230 2.000 3 h12 00.155 1.000 1 r2 00.135 1.000 4 r1 00.135 1.000 4 Betweenness Between/Degree t2 52.000 10.400 3 m2 46.000 9.200 2 m1 26.000 8.666 2 m3 25.999 8.666 2 t1 25.999 12.999 3 m4 25.999 8.666 2 r2 18.000 18.000 4 h22 18.000 9.000 1 h12 18.000 18.000 1 r1 18.000 18.000 4 Gould-Fernandez total brokerage score t2 9.0 3 m2 8.0 2 m1 2.0 2 m3 1.0 2 t1 1.0 3 m4 1.0 2 r2 0.0 4 h22 0.0 1 h12 0.0 1 r1 0.0 4 Network Community Structure Number of algorithm iterations = 6 Number of communities: 1 Player Community r1 5 m3 5 m4 5 r2 5 t2 5 t1 5 h22 5 m1 5 m2 5 h12 5 Time point 3 Player Eigenvector Degree Predicted Centrality Centrality Level m2 00.454 4.000 2 t2 00.419 5.000 3 m1 00.376 3.000 2 m4 00.341 2.000 2 m3 00.341 2.000 2 h22 00.306 2.000 1 t1 00.302 2.000 3 r2 00.168 1.000 4 r1 00.168 1.000 4 Betweenness Between/Degree t2 47.000 9.400 3 m2 29.000 7.250 2 t1 23.999 11.999 3 m1 22.000 7.333 2 m3 21.000 10.500 2 m4 21.000 10.500 2 r2 16.000 16.000 4 h22 16.000 8.000 1 r1 16.000 16.000 4 Gould-Fernandez total brokerage score t2 10.0 3 m2 5.0 2 m1 2.0 2 m3 1.0 2 t1 1.0 3 m4 1.0 2 r2 0.0 4 h22 0.0 1 r1 0.0 4 Network Community Structure Number of algorithm iterations = 4 Number of communities: 1 Player Community r1 5 m3 5 m4 5 r2 5 t2 5 t1 5 h22 5 m1 5 m2 5 ------ Detain List (Based on Network at Time-1)-------- Player-caused ecosystem damage is computed with the associated political-ecological model. Player Ecosystem Damage all players in model 694.0567593934327 tigerpoacher1 (h12) -17.50018923594564 tigerpoacher2 (h22) -17.372172502737385 The first individual to arrest is player h12 because they are causing the most ecosystem damage. SNA-generated Optimal Arrest Sequence = t2 is the second player to arrest and t1 is the third player to arrest. ------ Surveil List (Based on Network at Time-1) --------- SNA-generated Successor Prediction(s): r2 will succeed t2. m1 will succeed t1 SNA-predicted Influential Player Attempting to Hide (highest ratio of betweenness centrality-to-degree centrality) = t1 SNA-predicted Rising Stars (Based on Time-1 and Time-2) = m3 is a Rising Star m4 is a Rising Star r2 is a Rising Star t1 is a Rising Star ------------------- Interdict List -------------------- middleman m3 will sell rhino horns in town A, country Y. --- Network Resiliency Index (Recovery Time) --- (assumes arrests were made just after time-2) Connectivity Index at latest time = 2.810 Connectivity Index prior to arrests = 3.166 Network Resiliency Index = 00.058 or about 17.239 weeks.